Xiangzheng Deng, Qian Zhang, & Zhihui Li, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

Chenchen Shi, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Presentation Title: Impacts of urbanization on agricultural land: A model-based analysis in China




The explicit impacts of urbanization on agricultural land changes were analyzed using the highly urbanized region of eastern China as the area of study. An econometric model incorporated socio-economic and policy factors to analyze the impacts of different urbanization modes (‘town’, ‘village’ and ‘city’) on agricultural land changes. The results show that although urbanization has an effect on the changes of cultivated land, the effect is marginal. Moreover, the expansion of built-up areas in different urbanization modes causes varying impacts on changes in agricultural land in different regions.

Key Lessons Learned

  • Net cultivated land actually increased during the study period (1986 to 2000). Although newly cultivated area rose, average potential agricultural productivity actually fell.  Despite this, when examined in the aggregate for the entire period, the effect on total agricultural potential output was negligible.
  • Economic growth is the major determinant of any changes in cultivated land use.  Social, economic and geophysical factors, such as industrial structure and population growth, play an important role in influencing urbanization.